Is New York City the new Wuhan? In a matter of weeks, the city of 8.6 million has become the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the US, with more than 23,000 cases and 365 deaths. Until a statewide lockdown was instituted Sunday, New Yorkers were getting mixed messages about whether (and how) they should get tested, remain in self-isolation, take public transportation or gather in groups. With the state woefully short of supplies, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio are jockeying fo

Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the US housing market crash of 2007-2009 and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, are often called “black swans.” The term is meant to suggest that no one could have seen them coming. But, in fact, these episodes each involved known unknowns, rather than what former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously called “unknown unknowns.” After all, in each case, knowledgeable analysts were aware not only that such a thing could h

Since 2016, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced at a prime-time television address that he was withdrawing most of India’s currency overnight, such speeches have been preceded by wild speculation. Modi’s message on Tuesday evening was even starker than most expected. From midnight, this country of 1.3 billion will shut down: “For 21 days, forget what going out means.” Modi is one of the world’s most accomplished politicians, a man who has demonstrated time