A war over Taiwan would have a cost so vast that even those unhappiest with the status quo have reason not to risk it. Bloomberg Economics estimates the price tag at around $10 trillion, equal to about 10 percent of the global gross domestic product.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the semiconductor shortage as many countries reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns, provide a small glimpse of what would be at stake for the global economy. The impact of war in the Taiwan Strait would be far bigger.

Taiwan’s economy would be decimated, with a 40 percent blow to its GDP. China’s GDP would also suffer a 16.7 percent loss. For the US, with a lot at stake — through the reliance of Apple on the Asian electronics supply chain — the US' GDP would be down 6.7 percent. For the world as a whole, the GDP would be down 10.2 percent, with South Korea among the most impacted, along with Japan. (Bloomberg)