December 3, 2024, in South Korea “will live in infamy” as the nation endured the trauma of martial law on the order of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Without offering evidence, Yoon stated the measure was necessary to root out “anti-state” and “pro-North Korean” forces in the government. He failed to notify the National Assembly, as the Constitution requires, and instead sent special forces into the National Assembly building to arrest leading lawmakers. Eventually the soldiers held back and protesters outside helped enough representatives into the building to vote to rescind the order, as the Constitution allows. After a long, tense wait that has yet to be explained, Yoon lifted martial law.

Yoon’s botched self-coup has plunged South Korea into its most severe political crisis in decades. The public wants Yoon out quickly, but the conservative People Power Party blocked the first impeachment attempt on Dec. 7 for inexplicable reasons. Public anger has continued to build and another vote on impeachment scheduled for Dec. 14 now appears likely to pass. Polls show that slightly over 70 percent of the public support impeachment.

Impeachment would immediately prevent Yoon from carrying out his duties, which would pass to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as acting president while the Constitutional Court reviews the case. The Constitutional Court has a maximum of 180 days to review the case but would most likely rule earlier than that. If the impeachment is upheld, Yoon would be removed from office and a new election would take place within 60 days. If Yoon resigns, an election would also be held within 60 days. During the election period, the prime minister serves as acting president.

A possible problem with impeachment is that the Constitutional Court, which is composed of nine members, has three vacancies, which means that all of the remaining six would have to uphold the impeachment to remove Yoon. Given the evidence and public pressure, chances are high that the Court will back the impeachment, but the possibility of not reaching the required six votes cannot be discounted. If the impeachment is rejected, Yoon would return to his duties, which would inflame public outrage.

Meanwhile, the prosecutor’s office has launched a probe into Yoon Suk Yeol and the Ministry of Justice has banned Yoon from leaving the country. Kim Yong-hyun, minister of defense at the time of martial law, has been arrested and the criminal probe is widening to others. The Constitution gives presidents immunity from prosecution, except for “insurrection or treason” (Article 84), which means that, if charged, Yoon could be prosecuted and possibly jailed. That would not mean his removal from office because the only way to remove a president is for the Constitutional Court to uphold impeachment.

Among the various scenarios in play, resignation would bring the fastest solution to the crisis because it would get Yoon out of office and prompt an election soon. Though the People Power Party has talked about arranging an “orderly departure,” resignation seems unlikely. That leaves impeachment and removal as the most likely scenario with a new election likely in the spring.

Current polls show that Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is the overwhelming favorite. Lee has several major strengths. Having barely lost to Yoon Suk Yeol in 2022, he has shown that he is a vote getter. He also led the Democratic Party to expand its majority in the National Assembly elections in April this year. Above all, his social media appeals during martial law for people to gather at the National Assembly have earned him respect.

A problem for Lee is that he is a polarizing figure who doesn’t represent a break from the current political situation. The bigger problem for Lee is that he has been convicted of violating election law and has received a suspended prison term. He has appealed the verdict to the Supreme Court and can run for president during the appeal process. He also faces several other trials over corruption and other charges. So far, Lee’s legal troubles and polarizing image have not affected his standing with voters, most likely because of his increased status as a democracy defender.

A way out of the crisis is near, and clarity will bring comfort to a nation on edge. Spring will come and, most likely, South Korea will elect a new leader. Hopefully that person will be able to turn the people’s strong desire to protect democracy and overcome polarization into reality. It will require steady, forward-looking leadership with a focus on the common good.

Robert J. Fouser

Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.