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한국은행이 올해 우리나라의 경제성장률 전망치 를 3개월 만에 3.2%에서 2.8%로 하향조정했다.
작년 성장률은 당초 2.4%에서 2.0%로 낮췄다. 이에따라 우리나라 경제는 2년 연 속 2%대의 저성장 궤도에 진입할 가능성이 커 심각한 성장통을 앓을 것으로 보인다.
그러나 하반기를 지나면서 회복세가 두드러져 내년에는 3.8% 성장한다고 전망 했다.
한은은 11일 내놓은 `2013년 경제전망(수정)' 자료에서 올해 우리나라의 국내총생산(GDP)이 지난해보다 2.8% 늘어날 것으로 예상했다. 작년 10월 발표했던 3.2%보 다 0.4%포인트를 더 떨어뜨렸다.
12월 정부도 올해 경제성장률 전망치를 기존의 4.0%에서 3.0%로 내린 바 있다.
한은의 성장률 전망은 정부예상치보다 0.2%포인트 낮다.
김중수 총재는 "지난해 4분기 경제성장률(잠정)을 0.8% 성장으로 봤는데 0.4%포인트 정도 낮게 나오는 등 경제성장속도가 예상에 못미쳐 성장률 전망을 하향조정했 다"라고 설명했다.
한은은 올해 우리나라 상반기 경제성장률이 1.9%에 그치겠지만 하반기에는 3.5% 까지 올라가며 상저하고(上低下高)의 모습을 나타낼 것으로 내다봤다.
지출부문별 성장세 전망 역시 지난해 10월보다 낮아졌지만 2012년보다는 좋아질 것으로 예상했다.
올해 민간소비 증가율 전망치는 기존의 3.0%에서 2.8%로 0.2%포인트 낮춰 잡았다.
다만 대외여건의 불확실성 완화로 소비심리가 회복돼 지난해 민간소비 성장률보 다는 높을 것으로 전망된다.
소비자물가 상승률은 2.5%로 기존 예상치보다 0.2%포인트 낮아진다. 무상보육과 무상급식 등 정부의 복지정책 확대 때문이다.
제도적 요인을 제거한 소비자물가 상승률은 2.8%로 지난해(2.7%)와 비슷할 전망 이다. 소비자물가에서 농산물과 석유류를 제외한 근원인플레이션 예상치는 2.5%에서 2.3%으로, 식료품과 에너지를 제외한 예상치는 1.9%에서 1.8%로 각각 내렸다.
내년 경제성장률은 3.8%로 높아진다. 소비자물가 상승률 예상치는 2.8%다.
신운 한은 조사국장은 최근 원화강세이 성장률에 미칠 영향에 대해 "우리나라 주력 수출품목의 비가격경쟁력 등을 고려할 때 환율이 큰 폭으로 변동하지 않는 이상 수출입에 미치는 영향은 제한적일 가능성이 크다고 본다"라고 말했다.
BOK cuts GDP growth projection to 2.8%
By Kim Yon-se
The Bank of Korea said Friday that it has revised its outlook on the growth of the nation’s gross domestic product for this year to 2.8 percent, down from its earlier projection of 3.2 percent.
Further, the central bank predicted that the first-half economic growth will stay at 1.9 percent on a year-on-year basis.
Its prediction on the 2013 economy was unveiled right after the BOK’s Monetary Policy Committee announced it would maintain the benchmark interest rate untouched at 2.75 percent annually earlier in the day.
The slash in the growth outlook by 0.4 percentage point represents economists’ worries over unfavorable indices for this year. The revision was announced only three months after the BOK said the economy would grow at a rate of 3.2 percent in 2013 in its October projection.
Further, the bank has become more pessimistic than the Finance Ministry, which forecast a 3 percent growth rate for this year in its December report.
According to a BOK research report, the lethargic recovery in the global economy will somewhat negatively affect the Korean economy.
“Though there was a gradual economic recovery the United States, the sluggish indices lingered on in Europe,” the bank said in a statement. “Uncertainties involving the eurozone debt crisis and the U.S. fiscal austerity are still going on.”
Earlier than the BOK, some private think tanks started to unveil their gloomy 2013 GDP outlook that stood below 3 percent from the end of last year.
According to coming situations, there is a possibility that global research institutes will follow suit. The International Monetary Funds and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development had predicted that Korea will grow this year by 3.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively.
Concerning the 2012 economy, BOK Governor Kim Choong-soo said quarterly growth in the October-December period is estimated to stay at around 0.4 percent, down from the central bank’s earlier estimate of 0.8 percent.
As for the consumer price path in 2013, the bank said, “There are upside risks, including those posed by the possibility of run-ups in oil prices from geopolitical risks in the Middle East and by public utility charge hikes.”
With the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave the base rate unchanged at 2.75 percent until the next meeting, many analysts in the private sector are issuing the possibility that the BOK will choose to cut the key rate during the first quarter in a bid to boost the economy.
In a statement, the rate-setting committee said it appraises economic growth to remain at a weak level, with indicators related to exports and domestic demand alternating between improving and worsening.
“We anticipate that the negative output gap (between demand and exports) in the domestic economy will persist for a considerable time, due mostly to the slow recovery of the global economy in consequence chiefly of the sluggishness of economic activities in the euro area,” said the committee.
(kys@heraldcorp.com)
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