Speculation is rising over whether the shuttered industrial complex in the North Korean border town of Kaesong may resume operations following a second summit between the United States and North Korea that is expected to be held later this month in Vietnam.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced that his second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will take place in Vietnam from Feb. 27-28, with the talks to center on dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program.

It's been nearly three years since the Kaesong Industrial Complex, hailed as a successful cross-border economic cooperation project between the two Koreas, ceased operations.

On Feb. 10, 2016, the South Korean government, led by then President Park Geun-hye, announced the closing of the complex in retaliation for the North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations. South Korean businesspeople operating plants there were ordered to leave on short notice.

The South-North Korea relationship has made substantial progress in the past year, with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un holding three summits in 2018 alone. In their third summit, in Pyongyang in September 2018, the two leaders agreed to normalize operations of major inter-Korean projects, like the Kaesong complex and tourism to Mt. Kumgang.

In his New Year's Day speech, Kim said that he is willing to resume major inter-Korean projects, including the industrial park, without any preconditions.

Voicing hope for the reopening of the complex this year, Shin Han-yong, head of a task force that speaks for the South Korean firms operating factories in Kaesong, said that officials concerned "are pushing to visit Kaesong after the summit."

Around 180 businesspeople who once operated plants at the industrial park have requested state approval for their cross-border trip to check facilities they left behind. But the Seoul government decided in January to withhold its decision until "relevant conditions" are in place.

But resuming operations at the Kaesong complex is still thought to be a difficult task in regard to the sanctions imposed on North Korea. After the closure of the industrial complex, the international community reinforced sanctions against North Korea as the communist state pursued nuclear weapons development.

Under the sanctions imposed by United Nations Security Council and the United States, financial transactions and imports North Korean products have been prohibited, stifling North Korea's economy.

The US-led sanctions on North Korea have been also been a headache for the South Korean businesspeople who own factories in the complex. They applied for a visit to the complex, but without consultations with Washington and sanctions still being enforced, the business owners have effectively been barred from going to the North.

Observers here have said this situation could be reversed if North Korea and the US can make a breakthrough in their upcoming summit.

While the US leads sanctions on North Korea, there is a possibility that Washington could use reopening the Kaesong complex as one of its cards in negotiations with North Korea, offering the move in exchange for Pyongyang's denuclearization.

"What's important is whether the US and North Korea can set up talks (on the operation of the complex) under the agenda of North Korea's denuclearization," Lim Kang-taek, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said.

Others said that if the two sides make a breakthrough, the related parties may think about exempting the Kaesong complex from sanctions, instead of lifting them.

Kim Gwang-gil, an attorney who headed the complex's legal affairs team, said that the complex should be exempt from sanctions on the grounds that such a move could contribute to peace on the Korean Peninsula. Under the UNSC code, it can grant exemptions if such a decision meets the purpose of sanctions.

The US has yet to show signs of whether it will take a flexible stance on the Kaesong complex issue, meaning it could take some time for Washington to consider the exemption.

Before persuading the US and the international community, South Korean pundits have said that Seoul needs to show that the Kaesong Industrial Complex can be used to get North Korea to change and move towards a market economy.

"We need to accurately evaluate the impact of the Kaesong complex," Kim said. "It had more impact than just economic benefit. We need to gather more information to persuade the US." (Yonhap)