The Korea Herald

소아쌤

Major brokerages eye Nov. rate hike: poll

By Yonhap

Published : Nov. 13, 2017 - 09:47

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South Korea's major brokerage houses expect the nation's central bank to jack up its key interest rate this month and carry out further rate hikes next year, a poll showed Monday.

According to the survey of the country's top 10 securities firms by equity capital, all of the respondents forecast the Bank of Korea would raise the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.5 percent in its policy meeting slated for Nov. 30.

Last month, the BOK froze the base rate at 1.25 percent for the 16th consecutive month, after Asia's fourth-largest economy posted its fastest growth in seven years in the third quarter.

This composite image shows the headquarters of South Korea`s top 10 securities companies by equity capital. (Yonhap) This composite image shows the headquarters of South Korea`s top 10 securities companies by equity capital. (Yonhap)

Buoyed by resilient exports, the nation's gross domestic product rose 1.4 percent on-quarter in the July-September period or by 3.6 percent compared to the previous year.

The securities companies based their prediction on the country's economic recovery and rising consumer prices, the prerequisites for the central bank's monetary tightening.

At last month's rate-setting meeting, the central bank revised up its growth forecast for this year to 3 percent from the earlier 2.8 percent and also raised its inflation projection to its target level of 2 percent.

Park Jong-yeon, an NH Investment & Securities analyst, said the BOK appears to have no justification for delaying a rate increase further.

"The on-year GDP growth for the third quarter was a surprise," he said. "The central bank lacks reasons to postpone a rate increase. On the overseas front, the US Fed is sure to raise its key rate in December, easing the BOK's burden."

Park Hyeong-jung, a senior analyst at Daishin Securities Co., echoed this view. "There is a high possibility of the BOK conducting a rate increase in November, as the central bank is determined to stabilize the financial and property markets amid an economic recovery."

All of the surveyed brokerages predicted the central bank would increase the benchmark interest rate further, but differed on how many times.

Seven securities companies projected a rate rise only once in the coming year, saying the pace of domestic demand recovery is not so strong yet because of still weak inflationary pressure.

The remaining three brokerages said the central bank would increase its key rate twice next year, citing the need to "normalize its monetary policy" amid improving economic conditions.

The brokerage houses, meanwhile, said the BOK's rate hike this month would not have a great impact on the domestic financial market, as it has long been anticipated. (Yonhap)